How ML Stats Calculates Blackjack Results

ML Stats provides Blackjack guidance using a rules-based strategy model plus probability calculations for common decision metrics.

What the calculator returns

For your selected hand, dealer up card, and deck count, the tool reports:

• Recommended action (Hit, Stand, Double, Split, Surrender, or Bust)
• Bust percentage if you hit next
• Dealer bust percentage from the up card
• Estimated expected value (EV)
• Hand classification (soft or hard total)

Rules assumed by the model

• Dealer hits soft 17
• Late surrender is allowed
• Double is allowed on any first two cards
• Deck count is configurable (1, 2, 4, 6, or 8)

High-level method

1. The entered cards are validated and normalized.
2. The hand total is evaluated with Ace handling (soft vs hard logic).
3. A basic-strategy decision table is applied for the recommended action.
4. Bust probability is computed from card-value composition and deck count.
5. Dealer bust probability is estimated from dealer up-card lookup data.
6. EV is estimated with an action-aware model to provide directional guidance.

What this page does not disclose

This document is intentionally high level. It does not publish full internal decision tables, calibration constants, complete EV parameterization, or proprietary implementation details.

Important note

Results are informational and educational. They are not guarantees of outcomes or financial performance.